Low-Lying Areas of Carmel Valley being Evacuated as River nears Flood Stage

February 20, 2017

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A good day for ducks at the Carmel River Lagoon

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas of Carmel Valley, as the Carmel River continues to rise toward a projected peak of 10.4 feet at the Robles del Rio gauge.

Here is the message from the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services:

A mandatory evacuation order has been given for residents who may be affected by flooding on the Carmel River.

The Carmel River is expected to hit flood stage beginning at 4 pm today and peak beginning at 8 pm tonight. Those affected are asked to leave as quickly as feasible. Areas that may be impacted by flooding include all low-lying areas adjacent to the entire stem of the river from the Los Padres Dam to Mission Fields.

The Red Cross has established an evacuation center at Carmel Middle School, 4389 Carmel Valley Road. The SPCA of Monterey County will be on hand to assist evacuees with their companion animals, please call the SPCA if you have large animals that need to be removed 831-373-2631.

Call 211 or text 898-211 “windstorm” for additional information.

As of 3:45 pm, the river was at 8.15 feet (5,600 cubic feet per second) at the Robles del Rio gauge.

Minor flood stage begins at 8.5 feet (revised down from 9 feet when minor flooding began along Paso Hondo at less than 9 feet last month). River systems are dynamic and rapidly changing during times of high water, making it impossible to predict exactly what will flood, or how deeply, at any given water level. This uncertainty is undoubtedly why such an extensive evacuation has been ordered.

The Carmel River reached 9.1 feet on January 11.

View the Robles del Rio gauge here.

5:30 pm Update: As of 5:00 pm, the Carmel River had actually gone down a little at the Robles del Rio gauge, measuring 8.06 feet (5,450 cfs), but heavy rain has begun moving into the area and, if it continues, this decline may be short-lived.

7:45 pm Update: As of 7:15 pm, the Carmel River had dropped to 7.73 feet (4,880 cfs), but it looks like it may have bottomed out and begun to climb again.

8:45 pm  Update: The Carmel River is officially on the rise again. 7.93 feet (5,230 cfs) as of 8:15 pm at Robles del Rio.

10:00 pm Update: At 8.54 feet, as of 9:45 pm, the Carmel River has now reached minor flood stage. It is flowing through Robles del Rio at about 6,300 cfs. The Hydrologic Prediction people have bumped the projected peak up to 10.8 feet. Hopefully, the river will peak below that level.

10:30 pm Update: As of 10:15 pm, the Carmel River was nearly back to its January high water mark. 9.0 feet at Robles del Rio (7,180 cfs).

11:00 pm Update: As of 10:45, the Carmel River was at 9.39 feet (8,030 cfs). This is the highest flow the Carmel River has seen since 1998, but still only about half the flow of the disastrous 16,000 cfs flood of 1995.

Midnight Update: As of 11:45, the river was up to 9.96 feet (9,370 cfs) at Robles del Rio. The good news is that the height of the water flowing over the spillway at Los Padres Dam appears to have leveled off, meaning the peak flow is probably passing, or has just passed, that location. Those near the river who have not evacuated should continue to carefully monitor the river and the upstream gauges.

5:30 am Update: The Carmel River peaked at around 10 feet on the Robles del Rio gauge, shortly after midnight – failing to reach the predicted 10.8 feet. As of 4:45 am it had slipped below flood stage to 8.44 feet (6,120 cfs). The peak, which has swollen to around 15,900 cfs as it has travelled downstream  is only now reaching the mouth of Carmel Valley.

8:00 am Update: The peak has now passed out to sea and all parts of the river are going down. As of 6:45 am, the Robles del Rio gauge was showing 8.06 feet (5,450 cfs) and, as of 6:30 am, the Near Carmel gauge was showing 14,100 cfs.

Here’s what the river mouth looked like an hour ago:


Soberanes Fire: Week Nine

September 19, 2016

Important caveats: Please note that the squares on the heat detection maps represent the expected margin of error, not the size of the area burned. In other words, the detection could have come from anywhere within the square. Also be aware that false detections do sometimes occur. An outlying or “over the line” heat detection is not, by itself, a confirmation that there is fire in the area indicated. In addition, the satellites do not detect heat everywhere that fire exists. Creeping, backing or smoldering fire is often not detected. Finally, the detections are only snapshots of moments in time. Flare ups that occur before or after a satellite pass may be entirely missed.

Also be aware that yellow squares disappear from the map after 6 days. These are not maps of the area burned since the fire began, just maps of where heat has been detected during the past week. Read the rest of this entry »


Soberanes Fire: Week Seven

September 2, 2016

Important caveats: Please note that the squares on the heat detection maps represent the expected margin of error, not the size of the area burned. In other words, the detection could have come from anywhere within the square. Also be aware that false detections do sometimes occur. An outlying or “over the line” heat detection is not, by itself, a confirmation that there is fire in the area indicated. In addition, the satellites do not detect heat everywhere that fire exists. Creeping, backing or smoldering fire is often not detected. Finally, the detections are only snapshots of moments in time. Flare ups that occur before or after a satellite pass may be entirely missed.

Also be aware that yellow squares disappear from the map after 6 days. These are not maps of the area burned since the fire began, just maps of where heat has been detected during the past week. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sorry State of Water Conservation on the Monterey Peninsula

February 5, 2016

For years local officials have waived off suggestions that the Monterey Peninsula could do more to save water by falsely claiming that “residents of the Monterey Peninsula use less water per person per day than anywhere else in the state.” They’ve even gone so far as to publish fraudulent figures purporting to support this claim.

The purpose of this grandiose bragging has been to promote approval of as large and growth-inducing a new water project, whether dam or desal, as possible. That effort appears to have succeeded, but at the cost of undercutting efforts to increase water conservation. Read the rest of this entry »


Steelhead Lose Again at Carmel River Mouth

January 11, 2016

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Slowly rising lagoon

A few days ago, everything was working out perfectly for the Carmel River’s remnant steelhead population. With the San Clemente Dam gone, the door was open for more young steelhead smolts to safely reach the lagoon, and eventually the sea, than had been possible for many years. Then, relatively gentle rains put enough flow in the river to provide easy fish passage from the higher elevation tributaries to the lagoon, but not enough to breach the high summer sandbar at the lagoon mouth. Behind the bar, the slowly filling lagoon was becoming an ideal habitat for young steelhead to undergo the rapid growth and physiological changes necessary to survive at sea. Read the rest of this entry »


More Monterey Peninsula Residential Water Use Data

October 14, 2015

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Throughout the year, we’ve been posting, on a monthly basis, the average number of gallons used per person per day by residents of the Monterey Peninsula’s Cal Am service area, together with how that compares to other cities and water districts throughout the state.

Why? Read the rest of this entry »


Residential Water Use on the Monterey Peninsula Reaches Embarrassing Levels

August 10, 2015

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Summer on the Carmel River

The June residential use figures for cities and water districts around the state are out and the Monterey Peninsula has little to be proud of. A whopping 56 California communities did better than the Monterey Peninsula at residential water conservation in June, making a mockery of local officials’ oft repeated claims that the Peninsula is the state’s water conservation leader.

Monterey Peninsula residents used 66.1 gallons per person per day in June, dropping the Peninsula into a 57th place tie with Morro Bay. In May, Peninsula residents used 58.8 gallons per person per day and came in 48th. In April it was 55.8 gallons and 29th place.

It’s understandable that residents of the Monterey Peninsula, burdened by so many lavishly watered estates, would have a hard time using less water than places like San Francisco, San Diego, Inglewood and Compton, but how do we explain using almost four gallons more per person per day than a place like Burlingame; a wealthy Silicon Valley bedroom community where the median family income is $113,440, the climate is hotter and drier, and extensively landscaped properties abound?

The best performance in June was turned in by the Southern California city of Lynwood, where residents used only 35.3 gallons per person per day. Second place went to our own neighbor to the south, Cambria, where figure was 37.1. Santa Cruz was, once again, the best of the Monterey Bay area, at 42.7, and King City was, once again, the Monterey County leader, at 48.8.

Given our increasingly urgent need to impress the State Water Resources Control Board with the Peninsula’s seriousness about reducing its illegal pumping of the Carmel River, it’s too bad local officials aren’t doing more to make conservation a priority. Empty words about our water conservation leadership aren’t likely to impress a Water Board that now tracks and publishes the cold, hard facts on a month by month basis.