Low-Lying Areas of Carmel Valley being Evacuated as River nears Flood Stage

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A good day for ducks at the Carmel River Lagoon

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas of Carmel Valley, as the Carmel River continues to rise toward a projected peak of 10.4 feet at the Robles del Rio gauge.

Here is the message from the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services:

A mandatory evacuation order has been given for residents who may be affected by flooding on the Carmel River.

The Carmel River is expected to hit flood stage beginning at 4 pm today and peak beginning at 8 pm tonight. Those affected are asked to leave as quickly as feasible. Areas that may be impacted by flooding include all low-lying areas adjacent to the entire stem of the river from the Los Padres Dam to Mission Fields.

The Red Cross has established an evacuation center at Carmel Middle School, 4389 Carmel Valley Road. The SPCA of Monterey County will be on hand to assist evacuees with their companion animals, please call the SPCA if you have large animals that need to be removed 831-373-2631.

Call 211 or text 898-211 “windstorm” for additional information.

As of 3:45 pm, the river was at 8.15 feet (5,600 cubic feet per second) at the Robles del Rio gauge.

Minor flood stage begins at 8.5 feet (revised down from 9 feet when minor flooding began along Paso Hondo at less than 9 feet last month). River systems are dynamic and rapidly changing during times of high water, making it impossible to predict exactly what will flood, or how deeply, at any given water level. This uncertainty is undoubtedly why such an extensive evacuation has been ordered.

The Carmel River reached 9.1 feet on January 11.

View the Robles del Rio gauge here.

5:30 pm Update: As of 5:00 pm, the Carmel River had actually gone down a little at the Robles del Rio gauge, measuring 8.06 feet (5,450 cfs), but heavy rain has begun moving into the area and, if it continues, this decline may be short-lived.

7:45 pm Update: As of 7:15 pm, the Carmel River had dropped to 7.73 feet (4,880 cfs), but it looks like it may have bottomed out and begun to climb again.

8:45 pm  Update: The Carmel River is officially on the rise again. 7.93 feet (5,230 cfs) as of 8:15 pm at Robles del Rio.

10:00 pm Update: At 8.54 feet, as of 9:45 pm, the Carmel River has now reached minor flood stage. It is flowing through Robles del Rio at about 6,300 cfs. The Hydrologic Prediction people have bumped the projected peak up to 10.8 feet. Hopefully, the river will peak below that level.

10:30 pm Update: As of 10:15 pm, the Carmel River was nearly back to its January high water mark. 9.0 feet at Robles del Rio (7,180 cfs).

11:00 pm Update: As of 10:45, the Carmel River was at 9.39 feet (8,030 cfs). This is the highest flow the Carmel River has seen since 1998, but still only about half the flow of the disastrous 16,000 cfs flood of 1995.

Midnight Update: As of 11:45, the river was up to 9.96 feet (9,370 cfs) at Robles del Rio. The good news is that the height of the water flowing over the spillway at Los Padres Dam appears to have leveled off, meaning the peak flow is probably passing, or has just passed, that location. Those near the river who have not evacuated should continue to carefully monitor the river and the upstream gauges.

5:30 am Update: The Carmel River peaked at around 10 feet on the Robles del Rio gauge, shortly after midnight – failing to reach the predicted 10.8 feet. As of 4:45 am it had slipped below flood stage to 8.44 feet (6,120 cfs). The peak, which has swollen to around 15,900 cfs as it has travelled downstream  is only now reaching the mouth of Carmel Valley.

8:00 am Update: The peak has now passed out to sea and all parts of the river are going down. As of 6:45 am, the Robles del Rio gauge was showing 8.06 feet (5,450 cfs) and, as of 6:30 am, the Near Carmel gauge was showing 14,100 cfs.

Here’s what the river mouth looked like an hour ago:

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